Politics and Pucks

We are roughly two months away from the Iowa Caucus, and now might be a good time to start trying to separate the serious contenders. Keep in mind two months still is an eternity in election politics. So let's take a look at the pack:

MICHELLE BACHMANN (MN)
This campaign is seriously faltering. Rep. Bachmann, to me, does not seem very serious. To be completely fair, Bachmann only seems to speak to a small segment of the population, and part of that segment is asking her to stop running for President. Bachmann also seems to stay very vague when it comes to her business ventures, while other candidates have opened up about it. I think Bachmann needs to perform better at the debates if she has any chance of winning.

HERMAN CAIN (GA)
This candidate is a real surprise. Not only is he polling rather well, but he has been very actively campaigning. I have to hand my hat to his campaign for being very active. I think he will have a hard time explaining a lot of his gaffes to general public that may not share his same views on economics and social policy. It also scares me as a voter that Cain is not very knowledgeable of foreign leaders. If Cain continues to perform well in debates, and keeps off of race as a subject of conversation, I think he's a serious contender.


NEWT GINGRICH (GA)
Newt Gingrich feels very out of place in this campaign. He is not polling very high, and if he wins the nomination will be scrutinized for a lot of his mishaps in the late 1990s and early 2000s. He's carrying a lot of baggage he doesn't want to talk about. I think the press will also be especially tough on him, because of his continual criticism towards the press. He has not been particularly amazing at the debates and not making much headline press. I really think he has to perform well at the next debate in order to continue considering a nomination.

JOHN HUNTSMAN (UT) 
I think is a very good candidate for the Republican Party. The problem is that he's a moderate in a party that is increasingly conservative. The fact that he's willing to go on The Colbert Report really shows that he's willing to go outside the safety net of Fox News and speak to other audiences. He has not been very enticing for the Republican base and is not polling very high as a result. I think he has a future in the Republican Party, but 2012 will not be his year.

MITT ROMNEY (MA)
Right now Mitt Romney is the front-runner. The problem is it seems like a Romney candidacy would be an unpopular decision to the base. They don't like that he's Mormon, or that he has passed a state-mandated healthcare package. Although he's defended it several times, he's not changing their opinion. He also seems to be making gaffes, but they are only gaffes to a non-Republican audience. This campaign also seems very reminiscent of the John McCain campaign of 2008. Romney also has a bipartisan appeal, which is again not something that the Republican base wants. If he wins the nomination, there's a good chance he will have to pick a running-mate who is very conservative, similar to Sarah Palin.

RON PAUL (TX)
If there was a time where Ron Paul could theoretically win a national nomination in the Republican Party, this one would be it. I think Ron Paul's libertarianism has resonated with a small group of people who have some money, but don't realize that not enough people will vote for him. Rep. Paul has won a few straw polls, and that's great for his campaign. The problem is that his supporters are not very concentrated enough to really win him any states outside of Texas.

RICK PERRY (TX)
This is a sinking ship. Gov. Perry entered the race with high expectations, but is not meeting them. He has been very reminiscent of George W. Bush to some, and unable to defend a lot of his decisions as governor. He's popular among Evangelical voters, and that seems to be the extent of his popularity. He's also threatened to skip debates. If Gov. Perry does this, consider the campaign lost. Otherwise, I think he needs to show that he can debate in some capacity. Even if he's not the best, he will have to communicate his ideas to the American public if he wins the Presidency. Right now, I don't feel confident if he would be able to do so.

RICK SANTORUM (PA)
Not a chance he can win. He's more interested in focusing his complaints to people who are outside of the scope of this nomination rather than winning voters. I think he'll be around in symbolism, but that's about it. 

So yes, I think Romney or Cain can win the nomination. I wouldn't be surprised if I saw Rick Perry or Ron Paul make a small comeback, but I think it will be too little too late by the time that would happen. Overall, I think Romney has the best chance of winning, but he (like John McCain) would have to really make a strong case to the Evangelical base.