12:41 PM
Mike Brownstein
Today is the Iowa Caucus, the first primary event of the GOP 2012 Presidential race. If you have been keeping up with the polls, you can tell that the outcome is essentially a crap shoot. Predicting the outcome of the Iowa Caucus is crazy at this point, as the conventional logic has been thrown out the window. I'm suggesting that we just "roll initiative" with 20-sided dice to figure out who wins. (Edit 6:15PM) For those who aren't familiar with the concept of rolling initiative, it is essentially rolling the order of attacks in D&D. The highest initiative goes first, next highest goes second, and so on. In this case, we're determining the outcome of the Iowa Caucus.
So I just rolled one of my 20-sided dice and just uploaded them in the order I rolled them. I then assigned them alphabetically (1st roll to Bachmann, 2nd to Gingrich, etc.). None of them had bonuses, modifiers, or anything additional to take into consideration. This would be more accurate if I did a Monte Carlo simulation, but I don't have enough time today to do that. So here's my prediction of the caucus:
Michelle Bachmann rolls:
Newt Gingrich rolls:
Ron Paul rolls:
Rick Perry rolls:
Mitt Romney rolls:
Rick Santorum rolls:
The dice have spoken. I guess randomness likes late surges, hates liberty, and ignores the polls. Now will the people vote the same way?
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